Forecasted Undergraduate Hispanic Student Proportions
By Jake Morrison and Ephrem Glushchenko
EWU Office of Institutional Research
October 16, 2020: After analyzing the results of the Fall 2020 census, the forecast does not change. We still project EWU to meet the 25% threshold for HSI between Fall Quarter 2024 and Fall Quarter 2025.
July 9, 2020:
Becoming a Hispanic Serving Institution (HSI) is one of EWU’s strategic goals. To determine the time point at which EWU’s enrollment population will consist of 25% Hispanic or Latino students, we developed two time-series models to forecast enrollment trends. A seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Holts Winters’ seasonal forecast models were chosen based upon accuracy metrics (which were determined by splitting the data into a “training” data set and a “testing” data set). The strength of the models chosen is the flexibility to include seasonal projections as the Hispanic/Latino population decrease during summer terms.
Using historical and current trends of the EWU Hispanic/Latino population, we project EWU to meet the 25% threshold for HSI between Fall Quarter 2024 and Fall Quarter 2025. Please note these projections are calculated purely on established enrollment trends prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic indicators have not been included in the models.
Figure 1 presents the ARIMA model results showing that EWU is projected to cross the 25% threshold Winter Quarter of 2025 for the full-time equivalent population. The light blue band representing the 95% prediction interval shows the earliest EWU may cross the 25% threshold is Fall Quarter of 2022 while the latest being Fall Quarter of 2029.
Hispanic/Latino student proportions for full-time equivalent, matriculating undergraduates, excluding running start students. Blue lines represent the forecasted point estimates. The dark blue band represents the 80% prediction intervals and the light blue band represents the 95% prediction intervals.
Figure 2 presents the Holt-Winters’ model results showing that EWU is projected to cross the 25% threshold Fall Quarter of 2024 for the full-time equivalent population. The 95% prediction interval shows the earliest EWU may cross the 25% threshold as being Fall Quarter of 2022 while the latest being Fall Quarter 2027.
Hispanic/Latino student proportions for full-time equivalent, matriculating undergraduates, excluding running start students.. Green dashed lines represent the forecasted point estimates. The purple dashed lines represent the 95% prediction intervals.
